Conscious Finance
FIRE Calculator
Calculate your Financial Independence number (the portfolio size at which work becomes optional) and see exactly how many years it will take to get there based on your current savings and contributions.
Your current or target annual spending
The 4% Rule — Where Does It Come From?
The 4% rule originates from the Trinity Study, a 1998 analysis by three professors at Trinity University who examined historical stock and bond market data from 1926 to 1995. They found that a portfolio of 50–75% stocks could sustain annual withdrawals of 4% of the initial portfolio value, adjusted for inflation, across virtually all historical 30-year periods without being depleted.
For early retirees with potentially 40–60 year retirements, many FIRE practitioners use a more conservative 3–3.5% withdrawal rate. You can model this by multiplying your annual expenses by 29–33 instead of 25, or simply by running this calculator with a lower expected return rate.